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Study: By midcentury, 1 in 5 U.S. residents will be an immigrant
Feb. 12, 2008
Antonio Olivo - Chicago TribuneIssue date: 2/7/08 Section: MCT News
CHICAGO _ By 2050 nearly one in every five U.S. residents will be an immigrant, far exceeding any ratio of immigrants the nation has seen in at least a century and a half, according to a new projection released Monday.
The estimate by the Washington-based Pew Research Center reflects the steady train of upward adjustments many population experts have made in recent decades, both in the total U.S. population expected and in the proportion of immigrants.
Demographers have long monitored U.S. Census data in an effort to project current trends forward, providing a snapshot of the future that could help lay out policy questions facing the country.
As immigration has surged, those guesses have regularly been revised upward.
A few conclusions have become clear: Latino and Asian populations are rapidly increasing due both to immigration and birth rates here in the U.S.; non-Hispanic whites, meanwhile, are on their way to becoming a minority.
The latest study by Pew predicts that there will be about 438 million people in the country by 2050, nearly a 50 percent jump from the 2005 census total, driven largely by Latinos and Asians.
Those two communities will each triple in size over the next four decades, with Latinos representing 29 percent of the overall population and Asians representing 9 percent, the study shows.
Non-Hispanic whites, representing about 65 percent of the total population in 2005, will decrease to 49 percent. African-Americans are projected to stay at their current 13 percent.
By 2025, the proportion of immigrants in the nation will have surpassed the 14.8 percent mark reached in the late 19th century, when immigrants from Ireland, Bohemia and other European nations were helping to build Chicago and other cities.
When that happens, the country's needs and ethnic identity will be far more complex, predicted Jeffrey Passel, who co-wrote the Pew report.
For instance, there will far more elderly residents for every 100 working-aged adults, meaning the costs of providing for that group could escalate, Passel said.
The estimate by the Washington-based Pew Research Center reflects the steady train of upward adjustments many population experts have made in recent decades, both in the total U.S. population expected and in the proportion of immigrants.
Demographers have long monitored U.S. Census data in an effort to project current trends forward, providing a snapshot of the future that could help lay out policy questions facing the country.
As immigration has surged, those guesses have regularly been revised upward.
A few conclusions have become clear: Latino and Asian populations are rapidly increasing due both to immigration and birth rates here in the U.S.; non-Hispanic whites, meanwhile, are on their way to becoming a minority.
The latest study by Pew predicts that there will be about 438 million people in the country by 2050, nearly a 50 percent jump from the 2005 census total, driven largely by Latinos and Asians.
Those two communities will each triple in size over the next four decades, with Latinos representing 29 percent of the overall population and Asians representing 9 percent, the study shows.
Non-Hispanic whites, representing about 65 percent of the total population in 2005, will decrease to 49 percent. African-Americans are projected to stay at their current 13 percent.
By 2025, the proportion of immigrants in the nation will have surpassed the 14.8 percent mark reached in the late 19th century, when immigrants from Ireland, Bohemia and other European nations were helping to build Chicago and other cities.
When that happens, the country's needs and ethnic identity will be far more complex, predicted Jeffrey Passel, who co-wrote the Pew report.
For instance, there will far more elderly residents for every 100 working-aged adults, meaning the costs of providing for that group could escalate, Passel said.
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