Spring Break
Forecasters predict 6 to 9 hurricanes
May 23, 2008
Evan S. Benn - McClatchy NewspapersIssue date: 5/22/08 Section: Real News
MIAMI _ Top federal weather forecasters on Thursday told Floridians to brace for an active Atlantic hurricane season.
Their prediction calls for considerable activity _ 12 to 16 named storms are likely, including six to nine hurricanes, as many as five of which could be intensely powerful. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which reach major status.
''It may very well be a busy season,'' said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. ``Everyone needs to have a plan and be ready if a hurricane warning is issued. It only takes one hurricane to make it a bad season.''
Gerry Bell, the lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warned that his outlook should serve as a general guide and does not indicate when and where a hurricane might strike.
Bell's research found there is a 65 percent probability of above-average activity for the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1. Other probabilities: 25 percent for a near-normal season and 10 percent for below-normal activity.
Bell and others announced their outlook at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla., backed by hurricane hunter aircraft that fly into storms and record data. The science behind the outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.
Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade, said forecasters in his office are ready to track any storm and give residents the most up-to-date information to prepare.
Federal emergency management officials also took the opportunity at Thursday's announcement to remind residents now is the time to prepare for hurricane season. R. David Paulison of the Federal Emergency Management Agency urged people to come up with a plan and gather the essential supplies needed to get through the days and weeks after a storm.
Bell and others will release their updated predictions on Aug. 7, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricanes.
The early forecast is similar to what scientists William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University presented last week at a hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Their predictions also called for an above-average season, which they think will bring 15 named storms that grow into eight hurricanes, including four intense ones with winds above 110 mph. Gray has acknowledged his team's full-season predictions have been wrong the past three years.
Their prediction calls for considerable activity _ 12 to 16 named storms are likely, including six to nine hurricanes, as many as five of which could be intensely powerful. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which reach major status.
''It may very well be a busy season,'' said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. ``Everyone needs to have a plan and be ready if a hurricane warning is issued. It only takes one hurricane to make it a bad season.''
Gerry Bell, the lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warned that his outlook should serve as a general guide and does not indicate when and where a hurricane might strike.
Bell's research found there is a 65 percent probability of above-average activity for the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1. Other probabilities: 25 percent for a near-normal season and 10 percent for below-normal activity.
Bell and others announced their outlook at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla., backed by hurricane hunter aircraft that fly into storms and record data. The science behind the outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.
Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade, said forecasters in his office are ready to track any storm and give residents the most up-to-date information to prepare.
Federal emergency management officials also took the opportunity at Thursday's announcement to remind residents now is the time to prepare for hurricane season. R. David Paulison of the Federal Emergency Management Agency urged people to come up with a plan and gather the essential supplies needed to get through the days and weeks after a storm.
Bell and others will release their updated predictions on Aug. 7, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricanes.
The early forecast is similar to what scientists William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University presented last week at a hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Their predictions also called for an above-average season, which they think will bring 15 named storms that grow into eight hurricanes, including four intense ones with winds above 110 mph. Gray has acknowledged his team's full-season predictions have been wrong the past three years.
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